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Перестройка в Северной Корее

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09.04.2009 17:31 : На сессии Верховного народного собрания КНДР сегодня принято принципиальное решение о пересмотре Конституции страны
Как отмечает информационное агентство "Цтак", участники сессии проголосовали единогласно. Южнокорейские аналитики предполагают, что это свидетельствует о предстоящей реформе политической структуры Северной Кореи с учетом ожидаемого прихода нового руководителя на смену 67-летнему Ким Чен Иру. Сам Ким Чен Ир в начале работы сессии переизбран на высший руководящий пост государственной власти – председателя государственного Комитета обороны.

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Kim Jong-il looked thinner and older than before

The North Korean leader, Kim Jong-il, has made his first major state appearance since he had a suspected stroke last year.

TV pictures showed him attending a parliamentary session where he was re-elected as North Korean leader.

The session coincides with a separate announcement that North Korea is to revise its constitution.

No details have yet been given, but there is speculation that the changes might be linked to who succeeds Mr Kim.

He has no obvious successor, and rumours of his illness last year led to international concerns about the country's long-term stability.

Fit and well?

Mr Kim arrived in the Supreme People's Assembly to a standing ovation from his fellow ministers.

He was wearing his trademark khaki military suit, but he appeared considerably thinner and older than the last time he was seen in public nine months ago.

"Having comrade Kim Jong-il at the highest post of our country again is a great honour and happiness," a newscaster said on state-run television.

Mr Kim, 67, has ruled the impoverished nation of 24 million with absolute authority since his father's death in 1994.

Mr Kim was confirmed in his third term as the country's leader

Mr Kim's suspected stroke last August kept him out of the public eye through a series of important anniversary events, and is believed to have caused a delay to the parliamentary elections.

In recent weeks, North Korean media have released video images of Mr Kim touring farms and factories, in what analysts say was a strategy designed to show he was fit and well before the parliament vote.

Some observers suggest that even Sunday's rocket launch was timed for maximum propaganda value ahead of the parliamentary session.

Analysts say Mr Kim received a domestic boost from the launch, despite widespread foreign criticism of what was seen as a disguised missile test.

State television broadcast a lengthy paean to Mr Kim on Thursday, a day after tens of thousands of North Koreans rallied in Pyongyang to celebrate the rocket launch.

But the UN Security Council has been debating whether North Korea should be punished.

Japan and the US are pushing for a UN Security Council resolution which would reinforce and possibly extend existing sanctions against North Korea, applied in the wake of the country's nuclear test in 2006.

But China and Russia have been more cautious, saying they are yet to be convinced Pyongyang broke any rules.

North Korea has warned that "strong steps" will follow if the UN does takes action.

A recent report in North Korea's communist party newspaper said Mr Kim was "choked with sobs" that the money spent on the launch could not be used for the people's basic needs - but added that they would understand.

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Здесь можно посмотреть на овацию съезда похудевшему и постаревшему Ким Чен Иру:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7991151.stm

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By Mike Chinoy
For CNN

     
(CNN) -- There's an old saying that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.

U.S. President Barack Obama is facing a stern diplomacy test over North Korea's actions.

Although President Barack Obama and other world leaders could be forgiven for feeling that North Korea's Kim Jong-Il is deliberately driving them insane, that adage is worth keeping in mind amid the calls for U.N. Security Council sanctions against Pyongyang over its recent rocket test.

Virtually every angry editorial, opinion column or government statement condemning the launch and urging tough new sanctions has grudgingly acknowledged that -- however satisfying such a step would be -- it almost certainly won't work. Not only have the Chinese and Russians -- key neighbors and trading partners of North Korea -- made clear their opposition to sanctions, but history shows that pressure and coercion aimed at punishing the North or changing its behavior have usually had the opposite effect.

A few examples:

-- A Bush administration move in November 2002 to halt promised shipments of heavy fuel oil in retaliation for Pyongyang's alleged secret program to build a uranium-based nuclear bomb led not to the North abandoning its uranium effort, but to a decision to restart the nuclear reactor at Yongbyon, where operations had been frozen for eight years.

-- After the U.S. Treasury Department targeted North Korean accounts in a bank in the former Portuguese territory of Macau in September 2005, and Washington rejected the North's appeals to resolve the issue and hold a bilateral meeting with U.S. envoy Christopher Hill, Pyongyang test-fired seven missiles in July 2006.

-- And following the strongly worded condemnation of those missile tests by the U.N. Security Council, the North Koreans ignored warnings not only from Washington but even from their friends in Beijing and staged a nuclear test in October of that year.

There is no evidence to suggest that "punishing" North Korea with tougher sanctions this time will produce a result any different from past attempts at pressure, especially because the threat or use of force -- which would raise the prospect of a new Korean war when Washington is preoccupied with Afghanistan, Iraq and the financial crisis -- is clearly not an option.

Moreover, the North has signaled that it will retaliate sharply for any U.N. sanctions move. One likely step could be the reprocessing of spent fuel rods removed from the Yongbyon reactor as part of the process of disabling the facility that began in 2007. That could give Pyongyang enough weapons-grade plutonium to add another bomb to its arsenal.

Despite its strong condemnation of the April 5 rocket launch and public support for action at the United Nations, the Obama administration appears to understand that sanctions alone are a dead end. In a revealing meeting with reporters the day before the test, the new U.S. envoy to North Korea, Stephen Bosworth, went out of his way to downplay talk of coercion. Instead, he repeatedly signaled a desire to resume negotiations with Pyongyang.

"We ... believe strongly that everyone has a long-term interest. Regardless of this short-term problem, everyone has a long-term interest in getting back to the negotiations in the six-party process as expeditiously as possible," he said. He added, "We will continue to have bilateral contacts with the North Koreans. And we are prepared to open that channel at any point."

In the current heated climate -- especially given the hardline positions toward the North adopted by key U.S. allies Japan and South Korea -- it is likely to be weeks or months before those contacts resume, let alone offer the possibility of producing any meaningful progress. In the meantime, the challenge in what many commentators have described as Obama's first major foreign policy test is not just to prove how tough he can be, but to show that he has the will and political skill to keep open the possibility of negotiating with North Korea in spite of Kim's provocations.

-- Mike Chinoy is the Edgerton Senior Fellow on Asia at the Pacific Council on International Policy in Los Angeles. Information on his book "Meltdown: The Inside Story of the North Korean Nuclear Crisis," can be found at wwwpacificcouncil.org

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09.04.2009 19:04 : Руководство Северной Кореи решило изменить конституцию страны
Какие именно ее положения будут переписаны - пока неизвестно, однако многие аналитики полагают, что речь идет о механизме смены власти.
Поправки в основной закон Северной Кореи будут приняты впервые за последние 11 лет. По мнению южнокорейских аналитиков, это означает начало политической реформы КНДР. В высших кругах готовятся к смене руководства. Между тем, в мировой прессе активно обсуждается вопрос, кто станет преемником Ким Чен Ира, который правит страной с начала девяностых. Перед выборами в парламент многие аналитики решили, что им будет младший сын северокорейского лидера 25-летний Ким Чен Ун. Предполагалось, что его карьера начнется с депутатского кресла, однако по итогам выборов в парламенте его не оказалось. Тем временем, появился другой неофициальный кандидат в преемники. Зять Ким Чен Ира, Чан Сон Тхэк стал членом Государственного комитета обороны – высшего руководящего органа республики, его возглавляет сам лидер КНДР. Отмечу, что разговоры о преемнике подогревают слухи о болезниКим Чен Ира. По данным южнокорейской разведки, в августе прошлого года он перенес тяжелый инсульт. Сегодня лидер Северной Кореи впервыес августа появился перед телекамерами. Как сообщает агентство «Франс Пресс», он поднялся на подиум, прихрамывая на левую ногу, и был состоянии поднять обе руки для аплодисментов.
Добавим, что сегодня Ким Чем Ир был в третий раз переизбран председателем Государственного комитета обороны. Впервые эту должность он занял в 1992 году после смерти своего отца.

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